Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Poll Survivor



POINT:

For the last few days the Five-Thirty-Eight's odds have been hovering around a solid %75 for Obama, so maybe it's time to let the ugly fist of electoral tension stop brutalizing your heart with vice grip force. Maybe now the fist is just punching your heart, like that weird friend you had who kind of wanted to start a fight club in high school. Maybe your heart's just getting a deep-tissue massage and the fist is attached to the arm of a stoic German matron who subscribes to the Elbows Are Essential school of masseusery. Maybe you can rest thinking that, although your stomach is oriented slightly sideways, it probably won't get turned upside-down again, at least due to election stuff. Maybe.

Nate Silver's statistical arcana still leaves Romney with a %25 chance of prevailing. A week ago it was %30 and although 1 out of 4 is pretty darn close to 3 out of 10, the former fraction is significantly easier to stomach. So the odds are decent, and they might continue to break toward Obama as November 6th closes in, but they might not, and even if the current numbers hold steady, a 1 in 4 chance of Romney's shit-eating rictus beaming American exceptionalism across the free world for four years doesn't quite cotton to yours truly. Not to mention the auspicious reelection prospects of an incumbent Romney in 2016, who would likely be enjoying an economic recovery that will probably happen regardless of this election's outcome. So, I don't know, there's also the Elizabeth Warren thing: the great progressive hope. She soared onto the scene in a flaming chariot, sunbeams licking her flanks. Here was a true liberal zealot, a bullshit blowtorch whose ability to beautifully articulate the modern GOP's moral bankruptcy with an air of populist outrage should have made her run to reclaim Teddy Kennedy's senate seat from Scott Brown a pro forma exercise in totally fucking destroying a dude. Instead, earlier this year when Brown's campaign launched accusations re: alleged exploitation of her Native American heritage, Warren got all awkward and lost points with the more fickle portion of the Massachusetts electorate, irreversibly narrowing the race. So now the polls are a dead heat, and all the Obama-disillusioned liberal folks whose desperate Warren 2016 pipe dreams help them through the rougher nights have to deal with the %50 chance that, after this election, they will cry and cry.

But probably don't freak out, even if you're a little sad about the President Obama / candidate Obama dichotomy. Even if it seems strange to you that climate change was a non-issue in an election season during which Mother Nature seems to be giving the wake-up call thing a real honest shot. Even if, despite the progressive push for vitally necessary Wall Street regulation, income inequality is growing more quickly under Obama than Bush. Just relax. The economy is probably getting better. And hey, while I was writing this a new poll came out. Apparently Warren is gaining a significant lead, maybe. Hopefully it'll hold. You'll just have to wait for more numbers to trickle out and tense your abdomen accordingly.


COUNTERPOINT:

Я люблю тебя Ya loobloo tebya / I love you

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